Simulation Scenario

Simulation Scenario
Today is the seven-year anniversary of the day that a peace agreement was
signed to end ten years of violent conflict in Froga. This small, mountainous
country is proud of its ancient cities, vast timber resources, and world-class
religious education system but has been ravaged by years of civil war. Each day,
Frogans become more disillusioned by what the peace agreement has failed to
deliver—justice, political voice, economic stability, and social welfare. Corruption
undermines reform and development at every level, and factionalists and
warlords are exerting their influence by taking advantage of the gaps in
government leadership. An election is scheduled for next year, presenting the
country with a major opportunity toward improvement or continued descent into
failure. You are participating in a discussion panel to help a UN special
commission come up with recommendations for steps that should be taken to
improve the situation in Froga.
Conflict
Many factors fueled the ten-year conflict, but two major sources were ethnic
tension and disputes over natural resources. Froga has more than eight ethnic
groups, and the two largest groups are the Toki and the Yuso. Toki is the larger
group of the two. Before and during the conflict, Tokis had complete control of
the national government. All profits from timber extraction went to the national
government and to cities and towns where Tokis are a majority, and these profits
lined the pockets of Toki government officials and business owners. The Yuso
and other minority groups who inhabit lands from where timber was extracted did
not see any of the profits come back to their communities. Tired of the economic
disparity and political marginalization, the minority groups rose up violently
against the national government. Over the years, the rebel leaders became
warlords, establishing control over towns and cities, using force and violent
coercion to recruit members for paramilitary groups, and using any means to
bring in profits to maintain their power. The Toki military also took part in illegal
activities for profit, such as selling illegal timber, and mercilessly punished and
even killed anyone who was suspected of sympathizing with the rebels.
Peace Agreement
To end the violent conflict with a peace agreement, a deal was made to give the
top leaders on both sides protection from prosecution for their crimes and to give
them leadership positions in the interim government. The peace agreement put
into power an interim national government, with national elections scheduled
every four years. The peace agreement required that the national government
reflect the demographic make-up of the general population. One of the
consequences has been that political parties tend to reflect the ethnic make-up of

the country and tend to promote the narrow interests of the group rather than a
broader national interest.
Problems
The interim government was seen by the public to be corrupt, ineffectual, and
catering to the very people who prolonged the violent conflict, benefited
financially from it, and committed violence against civilians. It was hoped that the
election held three years ago would give government leaders a clear mandate for
reform and legitimacy, but allegations of voter fraud and electoral violence by an
“independent” election commission headed by members of the ruling Toki party
dashed that hope. Currently, the national legislature has far more Toki than Yuso
representatives. Six other smaller ethnic groups are also represented. The Toki
party, although in a coalition with other smaller parties, nevertheless controls the
most senior positions in the government, including the Prime Minister’s Office.
Furthermore, the public sees the country’s government officials of all ethnicities
as being solely interested in holding on to power. Hampered by corruption and
disorder, the local governments have also disappointed the public. Any level of
trust Frogans had for positive change is being eaten away, leaving gaps that are
being filled by factionalists who are again polarizing populations in their bid for
power. This is compounded by the government’s staggering commercial taxes,
which prevent business investment and local development. The ill-trained and
poorly paid police collect “taxes” and bribes and allow criminal activities to
increase.
Hope
For people living in the cities and towns dispersed across Froga, a strong
national government has never been their experience. These towns historically
had functioned with minimal interference by the national government, but since
the conflict has left their living conditions worse than before the conflict, they
would like to have the support of the national government to rebuild and restore
order. The rampant lawlessness has taken a toll on all Frogans. Your task is to
make recommendations for how to improve governance, make headway in
development in Froga, and help lay the groundwork for the second round of
national and local elections that will take place next year.